What Happened to the US Economy During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data

Francois Velde ()

No WP 2020-11, Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Abstract: Burns and Mitchell (1946, 109) found a recession of “exceptional brevity and moderate amplitude.” I confirm their judgment by examining a variety of high-frequency data. Industrial output fell sharply but rebounded within months. Retail seemed little affected and there is no evidence of increased business failures or stressed financial system. Cross-sectional data from the coal industry documents the short-lived impact of the epidemic on labor supply. The Armistice possibly prolonged the 1918 recession, short as it was, by injecting momentary uncertainty. Interventions to hinder the contagion were brief (typically a month) and there is some evidence that interventions made a difference for economic outcomes.

Keywords: 1918 Flu Pandemic; Covid-19; Labor Supply (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 H1 I10 I18 J22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41
Date: 2020-04-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea, nep-his, nep-lma and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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Related works:
Journal Article: What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data (2022)
Working Paper: What Happened to the US Economy During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data (2020)
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DOI: 10.21033/wp-2020-11

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