EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Monetary policy regime shifts and inflation persistence

Troy Davig and Taeyoung Doh

No RWP 08-16, Research Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Abstract: This paper reports the results of estimating a Markov-Switching New Keynesian (MSNK) model using Bayesian methods. The broadest and best fitting MSNK model is a four-regime model allowing independent changes in the regimes governing monetary policy and the volatility of the shocks. We use the estimates to investigate the mechanisms that lead to a decline in the persistence of inflation. We show that the population moment describing the serial correlation of inflation is a weighted average of the autocorrelation parameters of the exogenous shocks. Changes in the monetary or shock volatility regimes shift weight over these serial correlation parameters and affect the serial correlation properties of inflation. Estimation results indicate that a shift to a monetary regime that reacts more aggressively to inflation reduces the weight on the more persistent shocks, so lowers inflation persistence. Similarly, a shift to the low-volatility regime reduces the weight on the more persistent shocks and also contributes to reducing inflation persistence. Estimates of model-implied inflation persistence indicate that it began rising in the late 1960s and peaked around the Volcker disinflation. The subsequent decline in persistence is due to both a more aggressive monetary policy regime and less volatile shocks.

Date: 2008
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (56)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/332/pdf-rwp08-16.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence (2009)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp08-16

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Research Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Zach Kastens ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-30
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp08-16