Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle

Travis Berge

No RWP 13-05, Research Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Abstract: This paper evaluates the ability of several commonly followed economic indicators to predict business cycle turning points. As a baseline, forecasts from univariate models are combined by taking averages or by weighting forecasts with model-implied posterior probabilities. These combined forecasts are compared to those from a sophisticated model selection algorithm that allows for nonlinear model speci_cations. The preferred forecasting model is one that allows for nonlinear behavior across the business cycle and combines information from the yield curve with other indicators, especially at very short and very long horizons.

Keywords: Recessions; Economic indicators; Business cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-for and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle (2015)
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