Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities

Todd Clark and Michael McCracken

No 2008-030, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: Recent work suggests VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. The uncertainty inherent in any single representation of instability could mean that combining forecasts from a range of approaches will improve forecast accuracy. Focusing on models of U.S. output, prices, and interest rates, this paper examines the effectiveness of combining various models of instability in improving VAR forecasts made with real-time data.

Keywords: Econometric models; Economic forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ecm, nep-ets, nep-for and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities (2010)
Journal Article: Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities (2010)
Working Paper: Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities (2007)
Working Paper: Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities (2006)
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DOI: 10.20955/wp.2008.030

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