The Myth of First-Quarter Residual Seasonality

Jan Groen and Patrick Russo

No 20150608a, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: The current policy debate is influenced by the possibility that the first-quarter GDP data were affected by ?residual seasonality.? That is, the statistical procedures used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) did not fully smooth out seasonal variation in economic activity. If this is indeed the case, then the weak readings of the economy in the first quarter give an inaccurate picture of the state of the economy. In this post, we argue that unusually adverse winter weather, rather than imperfect seasonal adjustment by the BEA, was an important factor behind the weak first-quarter GDP data.

Keywords: adverse weather shocks; residual seasonality; GDP Growth forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-06-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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