U.S. Treasury Market Action on Election Night 2016

Michael Fleming

No 20181026, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: As the midterm elections approach, it’s worth revisiting the striking financial market response to the last federal elections in 2016. U.S. equity market futures and Treasury yields first plunged on election night 2016, as the presidential election results turned out closer than expected, but quickly rebounded after President Trump’s victory became clear, ultimately ending the day higher. In this post, I take a close look at the unusual U.S. Treasury market behavior that night, focusing on the market conditions and trading flows amid which the sharp yield changes took place.

Keywords: election; price impact; order flow; Treasury market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-10-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mst
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