Trade Policy Uncertainty May Affect the Organization of Firms’ Supply Chains

Sebastian Heise, Justin Pierce, Georg Schaur and Peter Schott

No 20191106, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: Global trade policy uncertainty has increased significantly, largely because of a changing tariff regime between the United States and China. In this blog post, we argue that trade policy can have a significant effect on firms? organization of supply chains. When the probability of a trade war rises, firms become less likely to form long-term, just-in-time relationships with foreign suppliers, which may lead to higher costs and welfare losses for consumers. Our research shows that even in the absence of actual tariff changes, an increased likelihood of a trade war can significantly distort U.S. imports.

Keywords: Procurement; Trade War; Uncertainty; Supply Chain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-11-06
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