The Law of One Price in Equity Volatility Markets

Charles Smith and Peter Van Tassel

No 20210201, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: Can option traders take a square root? Surprisingly, maybe not. This post shows that VIX futures prices exhibit significant deviations from their option-implied upper bounds—the square root of variance swap forward rates—thus violating the law of one price, a fundamental concept in economics and finance. The deviations widen during periods of market stress and predict the returns of VIX futures. Just as the stock market struggles with multiplication, the equity volatility market appears unable to take a square root at times.

Keywords: variance swaps; VIX futures; term structures; variance risk premium; return predictability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-02-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk and nep-rmg
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Working Paper: The Law of One Price in Equity Volatility Markets (2020)
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