A Turning Point in Wage Growth?

Richard Audoly, Martín Almuzara and Davide Melcangi
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Martín Almuzara: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/economists/almuzara

No 20230223, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: The surge in wage growth experienced by the U.S. economy over the past two years is showing some tentative signs of moderation. In this post, we take a closer look at the underlying data by estimating a model designed to isolate the persistent component—or trend—of wage growth. Our central finding is that this trend may have peaked in early 2022, having experienced an earlier rise and subsequent moderation that were broad-based across sectors. We also find that wage growth seems to be moderating more slowly than the trend in services inflation.

Keywords: wage growth; persistence; sectors; Services Inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 J0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-02-23
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-inv
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