Why Do Forecasters Disagree about Their Monetary Policy Expectations?

Arunima Sinha, Giorgio Topa and Francisco Torralba

No 20230802, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: While forecasters generally disagree about the expected path of monetary policy, the level of disagreement as measured in the New York Fed’s Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD) has increased substantially since 2022. For instance, the dispersion of expectations about the future path of the target federal funds rate (FFR) has widened significantly. What explains the current elevated disagreement in FFR forecasts?

Keywords: monetary policy; reaction functions; expectations; survey forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-08-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mon
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