A Measure of Trend Wage Inflation

Richard Audoly, Martin Almuzara and Davide Melcangi

No 1067, Staff Reports from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: We extend time-series models that have so far been used to study price inflation (Stock and Watson [2016a]) and apply them to a micro-level dataset containing worker-level information on hourly wages. We construct a measure of aggregate nominal wage growth that (i) filters out noise and very transitory movements, (ii) quantifies the importance of idiosyncratic factors for aggregate wage dynamics, and (iii) strongly co-moves with labor market tightness, unlike existing indicators of wage inflation. We show that our measure is a reliable real-time indicator of wage pressures and a good predictor of future wage growth.

Keywords: wage inflation; persistence; factor models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 E24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 60
Date: 2023-07-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mon
Note: Revised November 2024. Previous title: “A Measure of Core Wage Inflation”
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