Forecasting in the Absence of Precedent

Paul Ho

No 21-10, Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Abstract: We survey approaches to macroeconomic forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the unprecedented nature of the episode, there was greater dependence on information outside the econometric model, captured through either adjustments to the model or additional data. The transparency and flexibility of assumptions were especially important for interpreting real-time forecasts and updating forecasts as new data were observed. With data available at the time of writing, we show how various assumptions were violated and how these systematically biased forecasts.

Keywords: Macroeconomic Forecasting; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23
Date: 2021-06-16
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-for, nep-isf and nep-mac
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DOI: 10.21144/wp21-10

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