What Is the Probability of a Recession? The Message from Yield Spreads

Christopher Neely

On the Economy from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Abstract: Statistical models using yield spreads can provide estimated odds of a future contraction. How do the odds change when using real vs. nominal interest rates?

Keywords: yield spreads; recessions; real interest rates; nominal interest rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-09-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fdg
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:l00001:96746

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