Industrial production dynamics in particular sectors of Russian industry

Georgy Idrisov, Andrey Kaukin and Yuriy Ponomarev

Published Papers from Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Abstract: Russia’s real economy continued throughout 2015 to accommodate itself to new terms of trade and a new geopolitical context, both of which rendered the dynamics of domestic market’s key indicators less stable and less foreseeable. To make sure that sectoral dynamics are interpreted correctly, analysis of time series in the short term should be attended with seasonal and calendar adjustments. In order to be certain that the available dynamics of industrial production indicates that a period of downturn (or growth) is over, recovery (or slowdown) processes are afoot, monthly series should be decomposed into calendar, seasonal, irregular and trend components.[1] It is the changes of the trend component that should be analyzed in order to provide a substantial interpretation of sectoral trends.

Keywords: Russian economy; Russian industry; industrial production (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E37 L21 L52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 10 pages
Date: 2016, Revised 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-cse, nep-mac and nep-tra
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Published in RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN 2015 TRENDS AND OUTLOOKS (ISSUE 37)

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https://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/ppaper/ppaper-2016-253.pdf Revised version, 2016 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-253

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