Demography and migration processes in Russia in 2022

M. Makarentseva, Nikita Mkrtchyan, Yulia Florinskaya and Ramilya Khasanova
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M. Makarentseva: RANEPA
Nikita Mkrtchyan: RANEPA
Yulia Florinskaya: RANEPA
Ramilya Khasanova: RANEPA

Published Papers from Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Abstract: In 2022, natural population decline was equal to nearly 600,000 persons (599,600) or 4.1‰ (per mille) which is much below the level of a natural decline in the population in 2021 (1,042,700, 7.2‰) (Fig. 13). Such a decrease was feasible owing to the return of the mortality rate to the normal (non-pandemic) level. Experts approached the beginning of 2022 with negative expectations regarding the birth rate dynamics and the demographic situation as a whole. First, Russia is approaching the “bottom” as regards the number of women of the most active reproductive age (Fig. 14). With each year, a large generation of the late 1980s makes a smaller and smaller contribution to the current birth rate. All subsequent cohorts of women are substantially smaller in number. Second, as of the beginning of 2022 an upcoming decrease in the intensity of childbirth was mainly driven by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 and the accompanying economic stagnation. Now we can say that the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on the birth rate has become inseparable in Russia from the effects of subsequent developments (the beginning of the special military operation, the sanctions regime and the economic crisis) since Autumn 2022.

Keywords: Russian economy; population decline; demographic trends; childbirth; migration; internal migration; temporary migration; long-term migration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J13 J61 J62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 10 pages
Date: 2023, Revised 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-cis
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