Development of measures of demographic policy and a system of relevant targets characterizing achievement of the 2030 national development goals

Igor Efremov, Kirill Novikov and Denis Pustovalov
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Igor Efremov: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Kirill Novikov: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Denis Pustovalov: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Working Papers from Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Abstract: The object of the research is fertility, mortality, the relationship between fertility, mortality, population migration, targets of national projects on the one hand and measures provided for by national projects on the other. The main aim of the research is to propose reasonable measures of state demographic policy that contribute to the achievement of national goals – to increase life expectancy to 78 years and sustainable population growth by 2030. The main fundamental and applied problems solved in the research: analysis of the consistency of the main (demographic) national goals with each other and determination of ranges of values of their indicators necessary to achieve national goals; analysis of indicators of a Common plan to achieve national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030, submission of proposals for measures aimed at achieving demographic goals of national projects in accordance with current demographic trends in Russia. The methods we use are statistical methods of demographic analysis, decomposition methods in demographic analysis; methods of medical statistics; cross-methods of assessing the interference of demographic indicators. Main results of the research: existing indicators of achieving national goals in terms of demographic development of the country are being analyzed. Indicators that are inconsistent with each other and the final goals are identified. Changes in the parameters of such indicators are proposed, as well as additional indicators for achieving life expectancy of 78 years by 2030. State policy measures designed to accelerate the reduction of mortality, the growth of the birth rate and the migration growth of the Russian population are proposed.

Keywords: Russian education; demography; fertility; mortality; population migration; life expectancy; birth rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I21 I22 I23 I24 I25 I26 I28 I29 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 55 pages
Date: 2022, Revised 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-env
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