Crude Oil Price Movements and Institutional Traders

Celso Brunetti, Jeffrey Harris and Bahattin Büyükşahin
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Bahattin Büyükşahin: CoMeX Consulting and Advising, 4105 N Ridgeview Rd, Arlington, VA 22207, USA

Commodities, 2024, vol. 3, issue 1, 1-23

Abstract: We analyze the role of hedge fund, swap dealer, and arbitrageur activity in the crude oil market. The contribution of our work is to examine the role of institutional traders in switching between high-volatility and low-volatility regimes. Using confidential position data on institutional investors, we first analyze the linkages between trader positions and fundamentals. We find that these institutional position changes reflect fundamental economic factors. Subsequently, we adopt a Markov regime-switching model with time-varying probabilities and find that institutional position changes contribute incrementally to the probability of regime changes.

Keywords: trader positions; fundamentals; price reversals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 D4 E3 E6 F0 F1 F3 F4 F5 F6 G1 O1 O5 Q1 Q2 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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