The Realized Hierarchical Archimedean Copula in Risk Modelling

Ostap Okhrin and Anastasija Tetereva

Econometrics, 2017, vol. 5, issue 2, 1-31

Abstract: This paper introduces the concept of the realized hierarchical Archimedean copula (rHAC). The proposed approach inherits the ability of the copula to capture the dependencies among financial time series, and combines it with additional information contained in high-frequency data. The considered model does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality, and is able to accurately predict high-dimensional distributions. This flexibility is obtained by using a hierarchical structure in the copula. The time variability of the model is provided by daily forecasts of the realized correlation matrix, which is used to estimate the structure and the parameters of the rHAC. Extensive simulation studies show the validity of the estimator based on this realized correlation matrix, and its performance, in comparison to the benchmark models. The application of the estimator to one-day-ahead Value at Risk (VaR) prediction using high-frequency data exhibits good forecasting properties for a multivariate portfolio.

Keywords: multivariate dependence; copula; HAC; realized copula; realized covariance; value at risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B23 C C00 C01 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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