Effects of International Shocks on Cocoa Global Production

Mónica María Olarte-Libreros, Jaime Edison Rojas-Mora (), Hugo Fernando Guerrero-Sierra (), César Niño and Nicolás De la Peña
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Mónica María Olarte-Libreros: Escuela de Negocios, Universidad de La Salle, Bogotá 110231, Colombia
Jaime Edison Rojas-Mora: Centro de Investigación en Análisis de Datos Económicos y Sectoriales (CIDES), Politécnico Grancolombiano, Facultad de Negocios, Gestión y Sostenibilidad, Bogotá 110231, Colombia
Hugo Fernando Guerrero-Sierra: Facultad de Relaciones Internacionales, Estrategia y Seguridad, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, Cajicá 250240, Colombia
César Niño: Facultad de Economía, Empresa y Desarrollo Sostenible, Universidad de La Salle, Bogotá 110231, Colombia
Nicolás De la Peña: Facultad de Economía, Empresa y Desarrollo Sostenible, Universidad de La Salle, Bogotá 110231, Colombia

Economies, 2025, vol. 13, issue 2, 1-18

Abstract: The global cocoa trade network is highly concentrated. The top 5 producers account for 75 percent of exports. Although recent research shows that agricultural trade was resilient to the 2020 pandemic, cocoa is one of the most affected goods. This paper estimates the effects of international shocks, in general, and COVID-19 on the global cocoa trade. We find that the effect on the top 5 producers is less than on the small-size producers. Also, the COVID-19 pandemic increased production costs, reduced export probability, and created income volatility in small-size producers.

Keywords: cocoa; international shocks; COVID-19; shocks; difference-in-difference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E F I J O Q (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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