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A Novel Multi-Phase Stochastic Model for Lithium-Ion Batteries’ Degradation with Regeneration Phenomena

Jianxun Zhang, Xiao He, Xiaosheng Si, Changhua Hu and Donghua Zhou
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Jianxun Zhang: Department of Automation, Xi’an Research Institute of High-Tech, Xi’an 710025, China
Xiao He: Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Xiaosheng Si: Department of Automation, Xi’an Research Institute of High-Tech, Xi’an 710025, China
Changhua Hu: Department of Automation, Xi’an Research Institute of High-Tech, Xi’an 710025, China
Donghua Zhou: Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Energies, 2017, vol. 10, issue 11, 1-24

Abstract: A lithium-Ion battery is a typical degradation product, and its performance will deteriorate over time. In its degradation process, regeneration phenomena have been frequently encountered, which affect both the degradation state and rate. In this paper, we focus on how to build the degradation model and estimate the lifetime. Toward this end, we first propose a multi-phase stochastic degradation model with random jumps based on the Wiener process, where the multi-phase model and random jumps at the changing point are used to describe the variation of degradation rate and state caused by regeneration phenomena accordingly. Owing to the complex structure and random variables, the traditional Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is not suitable for the proposed model. In this case, we treat these random variables as latent parameters, and then develop an approach for model identification based on expectation conditional maximum (ECM) algorithm. Moreover, depending on the proposed model, how to estimate the lifetime with fixed changing point is presented via the time-space transformation technique, and the approximate analytical solution is derived. Finally, a numerical simulation and a practical case are provided for illustration.

Keywords: life prognostics; multi-phase degradation; Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm; regeneration phenomena; Bayesian rule (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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