Extreme Learning Machines for Solar Photovoltaic Power Predictions

Sameer Al-Dahidi, Osama Ayadi, Jehad Adeeb, Mohammad Alrbai and Bashar R. Qawasmeh
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Sameer Al-Dahidi: Department of Mechanical and Maintenance Engineering, School of Applied Technical Sciences, German Jordanian University, Amman 11180, Jordan
Osama Ayadi: Department of Mechanical Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan
Jehad Adeeb: Renewable Energy Center, Applied Science Private University, Amman 11931, Jordan
Mohammad Alrbai: Department of Mechanical Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan
Bashar R. Qawasmeh: Department of Mechanical Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 10, 1-18

Abstract: The unpredictability of intermittent renewable energy (RE) sources (solar and wind) constitutes reliability challenges for utilities whose goal is to match electricity supply to consumer demands across centralized grid networks. Thus, balancing the variable and increasing power inputs from plants with intermittent energy sources becomes a fundamental issue for transmission system operators. As a result, forecasting techniques have obtained paramount importance. This work aims at exploiting the simplicity, fast computational and good generalization capability of Extreme Learning Machines (ELMs) in providing accurate 24 h-ahead solar photovoltaic (PV) power production predictions. The ELM architecture is firstly optimized, e.g., in terms of number of hidden neurons, and number of historical solar radiations and ambient temperatures (embedding dimension) required for training the ELM model, then it is used online to predict the solar PV power productions. The investigated ELM model is applied to a real case study of 264 kWp solar PV system installed on the roof of the Faculty of Engineering at the Applied Science Private University (ASU), Amman, Jordan. Results showed the capability of the ELM model in providing predictions that are slightly more accurate with negligible computational efforts compared to a Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network (BP-ANN) model, which is currently adopted by the PV system owners for the prediction task.

Keywords: solar photovoltaic system; global solar radiations; ambient temperatures; prediction; Extreme Learning Machines; Back Propagation; Artificial Neural Networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

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