Estimation of the Near Future Wind Power Potential in the Black Sea

Daniel Ganea, Elena Mereuta and Liliana Rusu
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Daniel Ganea: Department of Mechanical Engineering, ‘Dunarea de Jos’ University of Galati, 47 Domneasca Street, 800 008 Galati, Romania
Elena Mereuta: Department of Mechanical Engineering, ‘Dunarea de Jos’ University of Galati, 47 Domneasca Street, 800 008 Galati, Romania
Liliana Rusu: Department of Mechanical Engineering, ‘Dunarea de Jos’ University of Galati, 47 Domneasca Street, 800 008 Galati, Romania

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 11, 1-21

Abstract: The main objective of the present study is to quantify the recent past and explore the near future wind power potential in the Black Sea basin, evaluating the possible changes. Furthermore, an analysis of the wind climate in the target area was also performed. The wind resources have been assessed using the wind fields provided by various databases. Thus, the wind power potential from the recent past was assessed based two different sources covering each one the 30-year period (1981–2010). The first source is the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), while the second source represents the hindcast wind fields simulated by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) and provided by EURO-CORDEX databases. The estimation of the near future wind power potential was made based on wind fields simulated by the same RCM under future climate projections, considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and they cover also a 30-year time interval (2021–2050). Information in various reference points were analyzed in detail. Several conclusions resulted from the present work. Thus, as regards the mean wind power potential in winter season, in 51% of the locations a significant increase is projected in the near future (both scenarios). Besides providing a detailed description of the wind conditions from the recent past over the Black Sea basin considering two major sources, the novelty of the present work consists in the fact that it gives an estimation of the expected wind climate in the target area for the near future period and at the same time an evaluation of the climate change impacts on the wind speed and wind power potential.

Keywords: wind speed; wind power; Black Sea; EURO-CORDEX; ERA-Interim (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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