Transformation towards a Renewable Energy System in Brazil and Mexico—Technological and Structural Options for Latin America

Sonja Simon, Tobias Naegler and Hans Christian Gils
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Sonja Simon: German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment, Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Tobias Naegler: German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment, Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Hans Christian Gils: German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment, Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 4, 1-26

Abstract: Newly industrialized countries face major challenges to comply with the Paris Treaty targets as economic growth and prosperity lead to increasing energy demand. Our paper analyses technological and structural options in terms of energy efficiency and renewable energies for a massive reduction of energy-related CO 2 emissions in Latin America. Brazil and Mexico share similar growth prospects but differ significantly with respect to renewable energy potentials. We identify, how this leads to different transformation pathways. By applying an energy system balancing model we develop normative energy system transformation scenarios across the heating, power, and mobility sectors, including their potential interactions. The normative scenarios rely on three basic strategies for both countries: (1) strong exploitation of efficiency potentials; (2) tapping the renewable energy potentials; and (3) sector coupling and electrification of heat supply and transport. Despite economic growth, significant CO 2 emission reductions could be achieved in Brazil from 440 Gt/a (2.2 t/cap) in 2012 to 0.4 Gt (2 kg/cap) in 2050 and in Mexico from 400 Gt/a (3.3 t/cap) to 80 Gt (0.5 t/cap). Our study shows the gap between existing policy and scenarios and our strategies, which provide an economically feasible way to comply with the Paris treaty targets.

Keywords: renewable energy potential; normative energy scenario; CO 2 target; energy system transformation; Paris Treaty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

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