Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

Mostafa Shaaban, Jürgen Scheffran, Jürgen Böhner and Mohamed S. Elsobki
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Mostafa Shaaban: Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5/7, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
Jürgen Scheffran: Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5/7, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
Jürgen Böhner: Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Mohamed S. Elsobki: Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Gamaet El Qahera St., Giza 12613, Egypt

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 5, 1-25

Abstract: Future electricity planning necessitates a thorough multi-faceted analysis of the available technologies in order to secure the energy supply for coming generations. To cope with worldwide concerns over sustainable development and meet the growing demands of electricity we assess the future potential technologies in Egypt through covering their technical, economic, environmental and social aspects. In this study we fill the gap of a lacking sustainability assessment of energy systems in Egypt where most of the studies focus mainly on the economic and technical aspects of planning future installation of power plants in Egypt. Furthermore, we include the stakeholder preferences of the indicators in the energy sector into our assessment. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity analysis through single dimension assessment scenarios of the technologies as well as a sustainable scenario with equal preferences of all dimensions of the sustainability. We employ two multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methodologies: the analytical hierarchy process for weighing the assessment criteria, and the weighted sum method for generating a general integrated sustainability index for each technology. The study investigates seven technologies: coal, natural gas, wind, concentrated solar power, photovoltaics, biomass and nuclear. The results reveal a perfect matching between the ranking of the technologies by the stakeholders and the sustainable scenario showing the highest ranking for natural gas and the lowest for nuclear and coal. There is a strong potential for renewable energy technologies to invade the electricity market in Egypt where they achieve the second ranking after natural gas. The Monte-Carlo approach gives photovoltaics a higher ranking over concentrated solar power as compared to the sample data ranking. The study concludes the importance of a multi-dimensional evaluation of the technologies while considering the preferences of the stakeholders in order to achieve a reliable and sustainable future energy supply.

Keywords: sustainability; electricity; technology assessment; MCDA; Egypt (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (24)

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