Probabilistic Power Flow for Hybrid AC/DC Grids with Ninth-Order Polynomial Normal Transformation and Inherited Latin Hypercube Sampling
Sui Peng,
Huixiang Chen,
Yong Lin,
Tong Shu,
Xingyu Lin,
Junjie Tang,
Wenyuan Li and
Weijie Wu
Additional contact information
Sui Peng: Grid Planning and Research Center, Guangdong Power Grid Corporation, CSG, Guangzhou 510080, China
Huixiang Chen: Grid Planning and Research Center, Guangdong Power Grid Corporation, CSG, Guangzhou 510080, China
Yong Lin: Grid Planning and Research Center, Guangdong Power Grid Corporation, CSG, Guangzhou 510080, China
Tong Shu: Power and Energy Reliability Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China
Xingyu Lin: Power and Energy Reliability Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China
Junjie Tang: Power and Energy Reliability Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China
Wenyuan Li: Power and Energy Reliability Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China
Weijie Wu: Grid Planning and Research Center, Guangdong Power Grid Corporation, CSG, Guangzhou 510080, China
Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 16, 1-21
Abstract:
This paper proposes a new probabilistic power flow method for the hybrid AC/VSC-MTDC (Voltage Source Control-Multiple Terminal Direct Current) grids, which is based on the combination of ninth-order polynomial normal transformation (NPNT) and inherited Latin hypercube sampling (ILHS) techniques. NPNT is utilized to directly handle historical records of uncertain sources to build the accurate probability model of random inputs, and ILHS is adopted to propagate the randomness from inputs to target outputs. Regardless of whether the underlying probability distribution is known or unknown, the proposed method has the ability to adaptively evaluate the sample size according to a specific operational scenario of the power systems, thus achieving a good balance between computational accuracy and speed. Meanwhile, the frequency histograms, probability distributions, and some more statistics of the results can be accurately and efficiently estimated as well. The modified IEEE 118-bus system, together with the realistic data of wind speeds and diverse consumer behaviors following irregular distributions, is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.
Keywords: probabilistic power flow; AC/VSC-MTDC hybrid grids; uncertainty; ninth-order polynomial normal transformation; inherited Latin hypercube sampling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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