Wind Speed and Power Ultra Short-Term Robust Forecasting Based on Takagi–Sugeno Fuzzy Model

Fang Liu, Ranran Li and Aliona Dreglea
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Fang Liu: School of Automation, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
Ranran Li: School of Automation, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
Aliona Dreglea: Energy Systems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk National Research Technical University, Irkutsk 664074, Russia

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 18, 1-16

Abstract: Accurate wind power and wind speed forecasting remains a critical challenge in wind power systems management. This paper proposes an ultra short-time forecasting method based on the Takagi–Sugeno (T–S) fuzzy model for wind power and wind speed. The model does not rely on a large amount of historical data and can obtain accurate forecasting results though efficient linearization. The proposed method employs meteorological measurements as input. Next, the antecedent and the consequent parameters of the forecasting model are identified by the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm and the recursive least squares method. From these components, the T–S fuzzy model is obtained. Wind farms located in China (Shanxi Province) and in Ireland (County Kerry) are considered as cases with which to validate the proposed forecasting method. The forecasting results are compared with results from the contemporary machine learning-based models including support vector machine (SVM), the combined model of SVM and empirical mode decomposition, and back propagation neural network methods. The results show that the proposed T–S fuzzy model can effectively improve the precision of the short-term wind power forecasting.

Keywords: wind power: wind speed: T–S fuzzy model: forecasting; linearization; machine learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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