Including Wind Power Generation in Brazil’s Long-Term Optimization Model for Energy Planning

Paula Medina Maçaira, Yasmin Monteiro Cyrillo, Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira and Reinaldo Castro Souza
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Paula Medina Maçaira: Industrial Engineering Department, PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro-RJ 22451-900, Brazil
Yasmin Monteiro Cyrillo: Electrical Engineering Department, PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro-RJ 22451-900, Brazil
Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira: Industrial Engineering Department, PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro-RJ 22451-900, Brazil
Reinaldo Castro Souza: Industrial Engineering Department, PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro-RJ 22451-900, Brazil

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 5, 1-20

Abstract: In the past two decades, wind power’s share of the energy mix has grown significantly in Brazil. However, nowadays planning electricity operation in Brazil basically involves evaluating the future conditions of energy supply from hydro and thermal sources over the planning horizon. In this context, wind power sources are not stochastically treated. This work applies an innovative approach that incorporates wind power generation in the Brazilian hydro-thermal dispatch using the analytical method of Frequency & Duration. The proposed approach is applied to Brazil’s Northeast region, covering the planning period from July 2017 to December 2021, using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to simulate wind power scenarios. The obtained results are more conservative than the one currently used by the National Electric System Operator, since the proposed approach forecasts 1.8% less wind generation, especially during peak periods, and 0.67% more thermal generation. This conservatism can reduce the chance of water reservoir depletion and, also an ineffective dispatch.

Keywords: net demand; wind power forecasting; long-term forecasting; intermittent sources; Markov chain Monte Carlo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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