The Role of Powertrain Electrification in Achieving Deep Decarbonization in Road Freight Transport

Juan C. González Palencia, Nguyen Van Tuan, Mikiya Araki and Seiichi Shiga
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Juan C. González Palencia: Division of Mechanical Science and Technology, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Gunma University, 1-5-1 Tenjincho, Kiryu, Gunma 376-8515, Japan
Nguyen Van Tuan: Division of Mechanical Science and Technology, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Gunma University, 1-5-1 Tenjincho, Kiryu, Gunma 376-8515, Japan
Mikiya Araki: Division of Mechanical Science and Technology, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Gunma University, 1-5-1 Tenjincho, Kiryu, Gunma 376-8515, Japan
Seiichi Shiga: Division of Mechanical Science and Technology, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Gunma University, 29-1 Honcho, Ota, Gunma 373-0057, Japan

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 10, 1-24

Abstract: Decarbonizing road freight transport is difficult due to its reliance on fossil fuel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The role of powertrain electrification in achieving deep decarbonization in road freight transport was studied using a vehicle stock turnover model, focusing on Japan. Twelve vehicle types were considered; combining four powertrains, ICEV, hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV) and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV); and three vehicle size classes, normal, compact and mini-sized vehicles. A scenario-based approach was used; considering a Base scenario, and three alternative scenarios targeting powertrain electrification. Between 2012 and 2050, tank to wheel CO 2 emissions decrease 42.8% in the Base scenario, due to the reduction of vehicle stock, the improvement of vehicle fuel consumption and the adoption of HEVs. Diffusion of FCEVs in normal vehicles and BEVs in compact and mini-sized vehicles achieves the largest tank to wheel CO 2 emissions reductions, up to 44.6% compared with the 2050 baseline value. The net cash flow is positive over the whole time horizon, peaking at 6.7 billion USD/year in 2049 and reaching 6.6 billion USD/year by 2050. Powertrain electrification is not enough to achieve any of the CO 2 emissions reduction targets in road freight transport.

Keywords: road freight transport; vehicle stock turnover model; deep decarbonization; road freight vehicle; electric-drive vehicle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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