Forecasting the Structure of Energy Production from Renewable Energy Sources and Biofuels in Poland

Jarosław Brodny, Magdalena Tutak and Saqib Ahmad Saki
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Jarosław Brodny: Faculty of Organization and Management, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
Magdalena Tutak: Faculty of Mining, Safety Engineering and Industrial Automation, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
Saqib Ahmad Saki: Mining Engineering Department, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, Pakistan

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 10, 1-31

Abstract: The world’s economic development depends on access to cheap energy sources. So far, energy has been obtained mainly from conventional sources like coal, gas and oil. Negative climate changes related to the high emissions of the economy based on the combustion of hydrocarbons and the growing public awareness have made it necessary to look for new ecological energy sources. This condition can be met by renewable energy sources. Both social pressure and international activities force changes in the structure of sources from which energy is produced. This also applies to the European Union countries, including Poland. There are no scientific studies in the area of forecasting energy production from renewable energy sources for Poland. Therefore, it is reasonable to investigate this subject since such a forecast can have a significant impact on investment decisions in the energy sector. At the same time, it must be as reliable as possible. That is why a modern method was used for this purpose, which undoubtedly involves artificial neural networks. The following article presents the results of the analysis of energy production from renewable energy sources in Poland and the forecasts for this production until 2025. Artificial neural networks were used to make the forecast. The analysis covered eight main sources from which this energy is produced in Poland. Based on the production volume since 1990, predicted volumes of renewable energy sources until 2025 were determined. These forecasts were prepared for all studied renewable energy sources. Renewable energy production plans and their share in total energy consumption in Poland were also examined and included in climate plans. The research was carried out using artificial neural networks. The results should be an important source of information on the effects of implementing climate policies in Poland. They should also be utilized to develop action plans to achieve the objectives of the European Green Deal strategy.

Keywords: energy; renewable energy sources; climate policy; forecast; the European Green Deal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (36)

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