International Energy Security Risk Index—Analysis of the Methodological Settings

Iztok Podbregar, Goran Šimić, Mirjana Radovanović, Sanja Filipović and Polona Šprajc
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Iztok Podbregar: Department of Organization and Management, Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Maribor, 4000 Kranj, Slovenia
Goran Šimić: Department for Simulations and Distance Learning, University of Defense in Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Sanja Filipović: Department for Economic Theory and Analysis, Faculty of Business, Singidunum University, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Polona Šprajc: Department of Organization and Management, Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Maribor, 4000 Kranj, Slovenia

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-15

Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to analyze model settings of the International Energy Security Risk Index developed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The study was performed using stepwise regression, principal component analysis, and Promax oblique rotation. The conclusion of the regression analysis shows that Crude Oil Price and Global Coal Reserves are sufficient to explain 90% of the variance of the Index. However, if a model that explains 100% of the variance of the Index is chosen and other variables are added, Global Coal Reserves loses importance due to the presence of other parameters in which it is contained. Regardless of the chosen model of analysis, it is evident that there is room for revising the Index and removing variables that do not contribute to its precision. The research showed that the main disadvantage of the variables that make up the Index rests with the fact that the variables are of different degrees of generality, that is, one parameter is contained in other parameters (unclear which other). The research covers data for 25 countries over a 26-year period, with the first year of the research being 1980 and the last 2016 (the latest available report).

Keywords: International Energy Security Risk Index; analysis; stepwise regression; principal component analysis; Promax oblique rotation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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