Multi-Objective Optimization Model EPLANopt for Energy Transition Analysis and Comparison with Climate-Change Scenarios

Matteo Giacomo Prina, Giampaolo Manzolini, David Moser, Roberto Vaccaro and Wolfram Sparber
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Matteo Giacomo Prina: EURAC Research, Institute for Renewable Energy, Viale Druso 1, I-39100 Bolzano, Italy
Giampaolo Manzolini: Dipartimento di energia, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini, 4, 20156 Milano (MI), Italy
David Moser: EURAC Research, Institute for Renewable Energy, Viale Druso 1, I-39100 Bolzano, Italy
Roberto Vaccaro: EURAC Research, Institute for Renewable Energy, Viale Druso 1, I-39100 Bolzano, Italy
Wolfram Sparber: EURAC Research, Institute for Renewable Energy, Viale Druso 1, I-39100 Bolzano, Italy

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-22

Abstract: The modeling of energy systems with high penetration of renewables is becoming more relevant due to environmental and security issues. Researchers need to support policy makers in the development of energy policies through results from simulating tools able to guide them. The EPLANopt model couples a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to EnergyPLAN simulation software to study the future best energy mix. In this study, EPLANopt is applied at country level to the Italian case study to assess the best configurations of the energy system in 2030. A scenario, the result of the optimization, is selected and compared to the Italian integrated energy and climate action plan scenario. It allows a further reduction of CO 2 emissions equal to 10% at the same annual costs of the Italian integrated energy and climate action plan scenario. Both these results are then compared to climate change scenarios through the carbon budget indicator. This comparison shows the difficulties to meet the Paris Agreement target of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. The results also show that this target can only be met through an increase in the total annual costs in the order of 25% with respect to the integrated energy and climate action plan scenario. However, the study also shows how the shift in expenditure from fossil fuels, external expenses, to investment on the national territory represents an opportunity to enhance the national economy.

Keywords: energy scenarios; photovoltaics; wind; EPLANopt; multi-objective optimization; climate-change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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