Trade-Off between Precision and Resolution of a Solar Power Forecasting Algorithm for Micro-Grid Optimal Control

Jean-Laurent Duchaud, Cyril Voyant, Alexis Fouilloy, Gilles Notton and Marie-Laure Nivet
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Jean-Laurent Duchaud: Science for the Environment, University of Corsica, UMR CNRS 6134, 20000 Ajaccio, France
Cyril Voyant: Science for the Environment, University of Corsica, UMR CNRS 6134, 20000 Ajaccio, France
Alexis Fouilloy: Science for the Environment, University of Corsica, UMR CNRS 6134, 20000 Ajaccio, France
Gilles Notton: Science for the Environment, University of Corsica, UMR CNRS 6134, 20000 Ajaccio, France
Marie-Laure Nivet: Science for the Environment, University of Corsica, UMR CNRS 6134, 20000 Ajaccio, France

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 14, 1-16

Abstract: With the development of micro-grids including PV production and storage, the need for efficient energy management strategies arises. One of their key components is the forecast of the energy production from very short to long term. The forecast time-step is an important parameter affecting not only its accuracy but also the optimal control time discretization, hence its efficiency and computational burden. To quantify this trade-off, four machine learning forecast models are tested on two geographical locations for time-steps varying from 2 to 60 min and horizons from 10 min to 6 h, on global irradiance horizontal and tilted when data was available. The results are similar for all the models and indicate that the error metric can be reduced up to 0.8% per minute on the time-step for forecasts below one hour and up to 1.7% per ten minutes for forecasts between one and six hours. In addition, it is shown that for short term horizons, it may be advantageous to forecast with a high resolution then average the results at the time-step needed by the energy management system.

Keywords: short-term solar forecasting; machine learning techniques; statistical models; performance evaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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