Short-Term Load Forecasting for Spanish Insular Electric Systems

Eduardo Caro and Jesús Juan
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Eduardo Caro: Statistics Laboratory, ETSII, University Politécnica de Madrid, C/José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain
Jesús Juan: Statistics Laboratory, ETSII, University Politécnica de Madrid, C/José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 14, 1-26

Abstract: In any electric power system, the Transmission System Operator (TSO) requires the use of short-term load forecasting algorithms. These predictions are essential for appropriate planning of the energy resources and optimal coordination for the generation agents. This study focuses on the development of a prediction model to be applied to the ten main Spanish islands: seven insular systems in the Canary Islands, and three systems in the Balearic Islands. An exhaustive analysis is presented concerning both the estimation results and the forecasting accuracy, benchmarked against an alternative prediction software and a set of modified models. The developed models are currently being used by the Spanish TSO (Red Eléctrica de España, REE) to make hourly one-day-ahead forecasts of the electricity demand of insular systems.

Keywords: short-term electric load forecasting; time series; Seasonal Reg-ARIMA models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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