Forecasting Hierarchical Time Series in Power Generation

Tiago Silveira Gontijo and Marcelo Azevedo Costa
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Marcelo Azevedo Costa: Graduate Program in Industrial Engineering, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Antônio Carlos 6627, Belo Horizonte 31270-901, MG, Brazil

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 14, 1-17

Abstract: Academic attention is being paid to the study of hierarchical time series. Especially in the electrical sector, there are several applications in which information can be organized into a hierarchical structure. The present study analyzed hourly power generation in Brazil (2018–2020), grouped according to each of the electrical subsystems and their respective sources of generating energy. The objective was to calculate the accuracy of the main measures of aggregating and disaggregating the forecasts of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Error, Trend, Seasonal (ETS) models. Specifically, the following hierarchical approaches were analyzed: (i) bottom-up (BU), (ii) top-down (TD), and (iii) optimal reconciliation. The optimal reconciliation models showed the best mean performance, considering the primary predictive windows. It was also found that energy forecasts in the South subsystem presented greater inaccuracy compared to the others, which signals the need for individualized models for this subsystem.

Keywords: power generation; electrical subsystems; time series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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