Decarbonization of Australia’s Energy System: Integrated Modeling of the Transformation of Electricity, Transportation, and Industrial Sectors

Tino Aboumahboub, Robert J. Brecha, Himalaya Bir Shrestha, Ursula Fuentes, Andreas Geiges, William Hare, Michiel Schaeffer, Lara Welder and Matthew J. Gidden
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Tino Aboumahboub: Climate Analytics gGmbH, Ritterstr. 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany
Robert J. Brecha: Climate Analytics gGmbH, Ritterstr. 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany
Himalaya Bir Shrestha: Climate Analytics gGmbH, Ritterstr. 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany
Ursula Fuentes: Climate Analytics gGmbH, Ritterstr. 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany
Andreas Geiges: Climate Analytics gGmbH, Ritterstr. 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany
William Hare: Climate Analytics gGmbH, Ritterstr. 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany
Michiel Schaeffer: Climate Analytics gGmbH, Ritterstr. 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany
Lara Welder: Climate Analytics gGmbH, Ritterstr. 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany
Matthew J. Gidden: Climate Analytics gGmbH, Ritterstr. 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 15, 1-39

Abstract: To achieve the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal, current energy systems must be transformed. Australia represents an interesting case for energy system transformation modeling: with a power system dominated by fossil fuels and, specifically, with a heavy coal component, there is at the same time a vast potential for expansion and use of renewables. We used the multi-sectoral Australian Energy Modeling System (AUSeMOSYS) to perform an integrated analysis of implications for the electricity, transport, and selected industry sectors to the mid-century. The state-level resolution allows representation of regional discrepancies in renewable supply and the quantification of inter-regional grid extensions necessary for the physical integration of variable renewables. We investigated the impacts of different CO 2 budgets and selected key factors on energy system transformation. Results indicate that coal-fired generation has to be phased out completely by 2030 and a fully renewable electricity supply achieved in the 2030s according to the cost-optimal pathway implied by the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement-compatible carbon budget. Wind and solar PV can play a dominant role in decarbonizing Australia’s energy system with continuous growth of demand due to the strong electrification of linked energy sectors.

Keywords: energy system modeling; decarbonization; sector-coupling; variable renewable energies; Australia; Paris Agreement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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