Data-Driven Charging Demand Prediction at Public Charging Stations Using Supervised Machine Learning Regression Methods

Ahmad Almaghrebi, Fares Aljuheshi, Mostafa Rafaie, Kevin James and Mahmoud Alahmad
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Ahmad Almaghrebi: Durham School of Architectural Engineering and Construction, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Omaha, NE 68182, USA
Fares Aljuheshi: Durham School of Architectural Engineering and Construction, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Omaha, NE 68182, USA
Mostafa Rafaie: Durham School of Architectural Engineering and Construction, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Omaha, NE 68182, USA
Kevin James: Durham School of Architectural Engineering and Construction, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Omaha, NE 68182, USA
Mahmoud Alahmad: Durham School of Architectural Engineering and Construction, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Omaha, NE 68182, USA

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 16, 1-21

Abstract: Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) user charging behavior has a significant influence on a distribution network and its reliability. Generally, monitoring energy consumption has become one of the most important factors in green and micro grids; therefore, predicting the charging demand of PEVs (the energy consumed during the charging session) could help to efficiently manage the electric grid. Consequently, three machine learning methods are applied in this research to predict the charging demand for the PEV user after a charging session starts. This approach is validated using a dataset consisting of seven years of charging events collected from public charging stations in the state of Nebraska, USA. The results show that the regression method, XGBoost, slightly outperforms the other methods in predicting the charging demand, with an RMSE equal to 6.68 kWh and R 2 equal to 51.9%. The relative importance of input variables is also discussed, showing that the user’s historical average demand has the most predictive value. Accurate prediction of session charging demand, as opposed to the daily or hourly demand of multiple users, has many possible applications for utility companies and charging networks, including scheduling, grid stability, and smart grid integration.

Keywords: Plug-in Electric Vehicle; public charging stations; charging behavior; charging demand; machine learning; data-driven (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

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