Simulating Power Generation from Photovoltaics in the Polish Power System Based on Ground Meteorological Measurements—First Tests Based on Transmission System Operator Data

Jakub Jurasz, Marcin Wdowikowski and Mariusz Figurski
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Jakub Jurasz: Department of Engineering Management, Faculty of Management, AGH University, 30-059 Cracow, Poland
Marcin Wdowikowski: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland
Mariusz Figurski: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 16, 1-10

Abstract: The Polish power system is undergoing a slow process of transformation from coal to one that is renewables dominated. Although coal will remain a fundamental fuel in the coming years, the recent upsurge in installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) systems should draw significant attention. Owning to the fact that the Polish Transmission System Operator recently published the PV hourly generation time series in this article, we aim to explore how well those can be modeled based on the meteorological measurements provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The hourly time series of PV generation on a country level and irradiation, wind speed, and temperature measurements from 23 meteorological stations covering one month are used as inputs to create an artificial neural network. The analysis indicates that available measurements combined with artificial neural networks can simulate PV generation on a national level with a mean percentage error of 3.2%.

Keywords: photovoltaics; artificial neural networks; national power system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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