AE-LSTM Based Deep Learning Model for Degradation Rate Influenced Energy Estimation of a PV System

Muhammad Aslam, Jae-Myeong Lee, Mustafa Raed Altaha, Seung-Jae Lee and Sugwon Hong
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Muhammad Aslam: Department of Electrical Engineering, Myongji University, Yongin, Gyeonggi 17058, Korea
Jae-Myeong Lee: Department of Computer Engineering, Myongji University, Yongin, Gyeonggi 17058, Korea
Mustafa Raed Altaha: Department of Computer Engineering, Myongji University, Yongin, Gyeonggi 17058, Korea
Seung-Jae Lee: Department of Electrical Engineering, Myongji University, Yongin, Gyeonggi 17058, Korea
Sugwon Hong: Department of Computer Engineering, Myongji University, Yongin, Gyeonggi 17058, Korea

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 17, 1-14

Abstract: With the increase in penetration of photovoltaics (PV) into the power system, the correct prediction of return on investment requires accurate prediction of decrease in power output over time. Degradation rates and corresponding degraded energy estimation must be known in order to predict power delivery accurately. Solar radiation plays a key role in long-term solar energy predictions. A combination of auto-encoder and long short-term memory (AE-LSTM) based deep learning approach is adopted for long-term solar radiation forecasting. First, the auto-encoder (AE) is trained for the feature extraction, and then fine-tuning with long short-term memory (LSTM) is done to get the final prediction. The input data consist of clear sky global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and historical solar radiation. After forecasting the solar radiation for three years, the corresponding degradation rate (DR) influenced energy potentials of an a-Si PV system is estimated. The estimated energy is useful economically for planning and installation of energy systems like microgrids, etc. The method of solar radiation forecasting and DR influenced energy estimation is compared with the traditional methods to show the efficiency of the proposed method.

Keywords: auto-encoder; LSTM; deep learning; machine learning; solar radiation forecasting; PV energy estimation; degradation rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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