Uncertainty Analysis of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Simulated by the Parametric Monte Carlo Simulation and Nonparametric Bootstrap Method

Kun Mo Lee, Min Hyeok Lee, Jong Seok Lee and Joo Young Lee
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Kun Mo Lee: Department of Environmental and Safety Engineering, Ajou University, 206 Worldcup-ro, Yeongtong-gu, Suwon 16499, Korea
Min Hyeok Lee: Environmental Regulation Compliance Office, Korea Institute of Industrial Technology, Hanshin Intervalley 24 East B/D 18F 322, Teheran-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul 06211, Korea
Jong Seok Lee: Division of Policy Research, Green Technology Center, 173, Toegye-re, Jung-gu, Seoul 04554, Korea
Joo Young Lee: Office of Carbon Upcycling R&D strategy, Environment & Sustainable Resources Research Center, Korea Research Institute of Chemical Technology, 141 Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34114, Korea

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 18, 1-15

Abstract: Uncertainty of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions was analyzed using the parametric Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method and the non-parametric bootstrap method. There was a certain number of observations required of a dataset before GHG emissions reached an asymptotic value. Treating a coefficient (i.e., GHG emission factor) as a random variable did not alter the mean; however, it yielded higher uncertainty of GHG emissions compared to the case when treating a coefficient constant. The non-parametric bootstrap method reduces the variance of GHG. A mathematical model for estimating GHG emissions should treat the GHG emission factor as a random variable. When the estimated probability density function (PDF) of the original dataset is incorrect, the nonparametric bootstrap method, not the parametric MCS method, should be the method of choice for the uncertainty analysis of GHG emissions.

Keywords: uncertainty analysis; GHG emission factor; parametric Monte Carlo simulation; nonparametric bootstrap; R program (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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