Potential of Straw for Energy Purposes in Poland—Forecasts Based on Trend and Causal Models

Piotr Gradziuk, Barbara Gradziuk, Anna Trocewicz and Błażej Jendrzejewski
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Barbara Gradziuk: Department of Management and Marketing, Faculty of Agrobioengineering, University of Life Sciences in Lublin, Akademicka 13, 20-950 Lublin, Poland
Anna Trocewicz: Department of Economy, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Pope John Paul II State School of Higher Education, Sidorska 95/97, 21-500 Biała Podlaska, Poland
Błażej Jendrzejewski: Economic Modelling Department, Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development, Polish Academy of Sciences, Nowy Swiat 72, 00-330 Warsaw, Poland

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 19, 1-22

Abstract: The mitigation of climate change poses a major challenge to the legal framework which aims to stimulate the development of renewable energy sources. The European Union’s direction for the use of renewable energy is distributed generation and an increased use of by-products and organic waste, especially in the production of next-generation biofuels. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the production potential of straw in Poland and the possibility of its use for energy purposes, including a forecast for 2030, on the assumption that the management of this resource is in accordance with the provisions of the Polish Code for Good Agriculture Practice. In Poland, in the years 1999–2018, the average annual surplus of straw harvested over agricultural consumption equalled 12.5 million tons (4.2 Mtoe). Its largest surpluses were in the Dolno?l?skie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Lubelskie, Wielkopolskie, and Zachodniopomorskie voivodeships (NUTS2). Based on the developed panel models, forecasts for straw surpluses in Poland are presented in three perspectives: realistic, pessimistic, and optimistic. The forecasts show regional differentiation until 2030. Each of the three perspectives indicate a slow increase in these surpluses, and depending on the adopted version, it will range from 10.6% to 21.9%.

Keywords: renewable energy sources; straw; biofuels; agriculture residues; forecasting; modelling; Poland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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