Planning an Energy–Water–Environment Nexus System in Coal-Dependent Regions under Uncertainties

Cong Chen, Lei Yu, Xueting Zeng, Guohe Huang and Yongping Li
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Cong Chen: Donlinks School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
Lei Yu: School of Water Conservancy & Environment, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Xueting Zeng: School of Labor Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
Guohe Huang: Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada
Yongping Li: Environment and Energy Systems Engineering Research Center, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-40

Abstract: Energy, water, and environment are inextricably interwoven in the complex social and economic networks. This study proposes an optimization model for planning the energy–water–environment nexus system (EWENS) through incorporating the linear autoregressive integrated moving average model prediction model (ARIMA), Monte Carlo simulation, chance-constrained programming (CCP), and type-2 fuzzy programming (T2FP) into one general framework. This method effectively tackles type-2 fuzzy set and stochastic uncertainties. The proposed model can quantitatively explore the interconnections between water, energy, and environment systems and generate an optimized solution for EWENS. The proposed model was applied to a coal-dominated region of China, i.e., Inner Mongolia. Several findings and policy implications were obtained. First, the total water supply for energy-generating activities will range from 1368.10 × 10 6 m 3 to 1370.62 × 10 6 m 3 , at the end of planning periods. Second, the electricity for water supply will range from 2164.07 × 10 6 kWh to 2167.65 × 10 6 kWh at the end of the planning periods, with a growth rate of 46.06–48.72%. Thirdly, lifecycle carbon dioxide emission (LCDE) is projected to range from 931.85 × 10 6 tons to 947.00 × 10 6 tons at the end of the planning periods. Wastewater and SO 2 , NOx, and particulate matter (PM) emissions are projected to be 42.72 × 10 3 –43.45 × 10 3 tons, 183.07 × 10 3 –186.23 × 10 3 tons, 712.38 × 10 3 –724.73 × 10 3 tons, and 38.14 × 10 3 –38.80 × 10 3 tons at the end of the planning periods. Fourthly, as the largest electricity-exporting city of China, Inner Mongolia’s electricity outflows will export 1435.78 × 10 6 m 3 of virtual water to other regions, implying that Inner Mongolia is pumping its important water resource to support other regions’ electricity demands. Finally, high carbon mitigation levels can effectively optimize the electricity power mix, reduce consumption amounts of water and coal, and mitigate air pollutants, wastewater, and LCDE. The obtained results provide useful information for managers to develop a sustainability plan for the EWENS.

Keywords: energy–water–environment nexus system; type-2 fuzzy sets; lifecycle carbon dioxide emissions; ARIMA; Monte Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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