Event Effects Estimation on Electricity Demand Forecasting

Kei Hirose, Keigo Wada, Maiya Hori and Rin-ichiro Taniguchi
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Kei Hirose: Institute of Mathematics for Industry, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan
Keigo Wada: Articulation Center for High School and University, Kanazawa University, Ishikawa 920-1192, Japan
Maiya Hori: Platform of Inter/Transdisciplinary Energy Research, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan
Rin-ichiro Taniguchi: Faculty of Information Science and Electrical Engineering, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 21, 1-20

Abstract: We consider the problem of short-term electricity demand forecasting in a small-scale area. Electric power usage depends heavily on irregular daily events. Event information must be incorporated into the forecasting model to obtain high forecast accuracy. The electricity fluctuation due to daily events is considered to be a basis function of time period in a regression model. We present several basis functions that extract the characteristics of the event effect. When the basis function cannot be specified, we employ the fused lasso for automatic construction of the basis function. With the fused lasso, some coefficients of neighboring time periods take exactly the same values, leading to stable basis function estimation and enhancement of interpretation. Our proposed method is applied to the electricity demand data of a research facility in Japan. The results show that our proposed model yields better forecast accuracy than a model that omits event information; our proposed method resulted in roughly 12% and 20% improvements in mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error, respectively.

Keywords: irregular daily events; basis expansion; electricity demand forecasting; Japanese facility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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