Power Generation Prediction of an Open Cycle Gas Turbine Using Kalman Filter

Christos Manasis, Nicholas Assimakis, Vasilis Vikias, Aphrodite Ktena and Tassos Stamatelos
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Christos Manasis: Energy Systems Laboratory, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 34400 Psachna Evia, Greece
Nicholas Assimakis: Energy Systems Laboratory, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 34400 Psachna Evia, Greece
Vasilis Vikias: Energy Systems Laboratory, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 34400 Psachna Evia, Greece
Aphrodite Ktena: Energy Systems Laboratory, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 34400 Psachna Evia, Greece
Tassos Stamatelos: Thermodynamics and Thermal Engines Laboratory, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Thessaly, 38334 Volos, Greece

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 24, 1-15

Abstract: The motivation for this paper is the enhanced role of power generation prediction in power plants and power systems in the smart grid paradigm. The proposed approach addresses the impact of the ambient temperature on the performance of an open cycle gas turbine when using the Kalman Filter (KF) technique and the power-temperature (P-T) characteristic of the turbine. Several Kalman Filtering techniques are tested to obtain improved temperature forecasts, which are then used to obtain output power predictions. A typical P-T curve of an open-cycle gas turbine is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. Nonlinear and linear discrete process models are studied. Extended Kalman Filters are proposed for the nonlinear model. The Time Varying, Time Invariant, and Steady State Kalman Filters are used with the linearized model. Simulation results show that the power generation prediction obtained using the Extended Kalman Filter with the piecewise linear model yields improved forecasts. The linear formulations, though less accurate, are a promising option when a power generation forecast for a small-term and short-term time window is required.

Keywords: power generation planning; prediction; forecasting; temperature; Kalman Filters; finite impulse response filters; energy efficiency; electricity markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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