On the Way to a Sustainable European Energy System: Setting Up an Integrated Assessment Toolbox with TIMES PanEU as the Key Component

Pinar Korkmaz, Roland Cunha Montenegro, Dorothea Schmid, Markus Blesl and Ulrich Fahl
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Pinar Korkmaz: Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use, University of Stuttgart, Heßbrühlstraße 49A, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany
Roland Cunha Montenegro: Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use, University of Stuttgart, Heßbrühlstraße 49A, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany
Dorothea Schmid: Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use, University of Stuttgart, Heßbrühlstraße 49A, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany
Markus Blesl: Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use, University of Stuttgart, Heßbrühlstraße 49A, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany
Ulrich Fahl: Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use, University of Stuttgart, Heßbrühlstraße 49A, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 3, 1-36

Abstract: The required decarbonization of the energy system is a complex task, with ambitious targets under the Paris Agreement, and related policy analysis should consider possible impacts on the economy and society. By coupling the energy system model TIMES PanEU with the impact assessment model EcoSense and the computable general equilibrium model NEWAGE, we present an integrated assessment toolbox for the European energy system capable of internalizing health damage costs of air pollution while simultaneously accounting for demand changes in energy services caused by economic feedback loops. The effects of each coupling step are investigated in a scenario analysis. Additionally, CO 2 decomposition analysis is applied to identify the main drivers to decarbonize the energy system. Our results show that integrating externalities forces the system to take early action, which provides benefits on the societal level. Including macro-economic variables has a negative effect on energy service demands and generally reduces the need for structural change, which are still the main drivers of decarbonization. The tighter the models are coupled, the fewer the iterations needed and the lower the CO 2 prices resulting from the carbon cap and trade system. In this aspect, an integrated view can provide valuable insights to determine efficient and effective decarbonization paths.

Keywords: integrated assessment model; Pan-European model; energy system transformation; sustainable European energy system; CO 2 decomposition analysis; general equilibrium model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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