An Interval Forecasting Model Based on Phase Space Reconstruction and Weighted Least Squares Support Vector Machine for Time Series of Dissolved Gas Content in Transformer Oil

Fang Yuan, Jiang Guo, Zhihuai Xiao, Bing Zeng, Wenqiang Zhu and Sixu Huang
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Fang Yuan: Intelligent Power Equipment Technology Research Center, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Jiang Guo: Intelligent Power Equipment Technology Research Center, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Zhihuai Xiao: School of Power and Mechanical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Bing Zeng: Intelligent Power Equipment Technology Research Center, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Wenqiang Zhu: Intelligent Power Equipment Technology Research Center, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Sixu Huang: Intelligent Power Equipment Technology Research Center, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 7, 1-28

Abstract: Transformer state forecasting and fault forecasting are important for the stable operation of power equipment and the normal operation of power systems. Forecasting of the dissolved gas content in oil is widely conducted for transformer faults, but its accuracy is affected by data scale and data characteristics. Based on phase space reconstruction (PSR) and weighted least squares support vector machine (WLSSVM), a forecasting model of time series of dissolved gas content in transformer oil is proposed in this paper. The phase spaces of time series of the dissolved gas content sequence are reconstructed by chaos theory, and the delay time and dimension are obtained by the C-C method. The WLSSVM model is used to forecast time series of dissolved gas content, the chemical reaction optimization (CRO) algorithm is used to optimize training parameters, the bootstrap method is used to build forecasting intervals. Finally, the accuracy and generalization ability of the forecasting model are verified by the analysis of actual case and the comparison of different models.

Keywords: transformer; dissolved gas content in oil; forecasting; chaos theory; phase space reconstruction; weighted least-squares support vector machine; chemical reaction optimization; bootstrap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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