Ship Emission Mitigation Strategies Choice Under Uncertainty

Jun Yuan, Haowei Wang, Szu Hui Ng and Victor Nian
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Jun Yuan: China Institute of Free Trade Zone Supply Chain, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
Haowei Wang: Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117576, Singapore
Szu Hui Ng: Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117576, Singapore
Victor Nian: Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119620, Singapore

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 9, 1-20

Abstract: Various mitigation strategies have been proposed to reduce the CO 2 emissions from ships, which have become a major contributor to global emissions. The fuel consumption under different mitigation strategies can be evaluated based on two data sources, real data from the real ship systems and simulated data from the simulation models. In practice, the uncertainties in the obtained data may have non-negligible impacts on the evaluation of mitigation strategies. In this paper, a Gaussian process metamodel-based approach is proposed to evaluate the ship fuel consumption under different mitigation strategies. The proposed method not only can incorporate different data sources but also consider the uncertainties in the data to obtain a more reliable evaluation. A cost-effectiveness analysis based on the fuel consumption prediction is then applied to rank the mitigation strategies under uncertainty. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method is illustrated in a chemical tanker case study, and the results indicate that it is critical to consider the uncertainty, as they can lead to suboptimal decisions when ignored. Here, trim optimisation is ranked more effective than draft optimisation when the uncertainty is ignored, but the reverse is the case when the uncertainty in the estimations are fully accounted for.

Keywords: ship energy system; mitigation strategies; uncertainty; Gaussian process; emission reduction; cost assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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