Bayesian Optimized Echo State Network Applied to Short-Term Load Forecasting

Gabriel Trierweiler Ribeiro, João Guilherme Sauer, Naylene Fraccanabbia, Viviana Cocco Mariani and Leandro dos Santos Coelho
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Gabriel Trierweiler Ribeiro: Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal University of Parana (UFPR), Av. Coronal Francisco Heráclito dos Santos, 100, Curitiba (PR) 80060-000, Brazil
João Guilherme Sauer: Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal University of Parana (UFPR), Av. Coronal Francisco Heráclito dos Santos, 100, Curitiba (PR) 80060-000, Brazil
Naylene Fraccanabbia: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Pontifical Catholic University of Parana (PUCPR), Rua Imaculada Conceição, 1155, Curitiba (PR) 80215-901, Brazil
Viviana Cocco Mariani: Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal University of Parana (UFPR), Av. Coronal Francisco Heráclito dos Santos, 100, Curitiba (PR) 80060-000, Brazil
Leandro dos Santos Coelho: Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal University of Parana (UFPR), Av. Coronal Francisco Heráclito dos Santos, 100, Curitiba (PR) 80060-000, Brazil

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 9, 1-19

Abstract: Load forecasting impacts directly financial returns and information in electrical systems planning. A promising approach to load forecasting is the Echo State Network (ESN), a recurrent neural network for the processing of temporal dependencies. The low computational cost and powerful performance of ESN make it widely used in a range of applications including forecasting tasks and nonlinear modeling. This paper presents a Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA) of ESN hyperparameters in load forecasting with its main contributions including helping the selection of optimization algorithms for tuning ESN to solve real-world forecasting problems, as well as the evaluation of the performance of Bayesian optimization with different acquisition function settings. For this purpose, the ESN hyperparameters were set as variables to be optimized. Then, the adopted BOA employs a probabilist model using Gaussian process to find the best set of ESN hyperparameters using three different options of acquisition function and a surrogate utility function. Finally, the optimized hyperparameters are used by the ESN for predictions. Two datasets have been used to test the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting ESN model using BOA approaches, one from Poland and another from Brazil. The results of optimization statistics, convergence curves, execution time profile, and the hyperparameters’ best solution frequencies indicate that each problem requires a different setting for the BOA. Simulation results are promising in terms of short-term load forecasting quality and low error predictions may be achieved, given the correct options settings are used. Furthermore, since there is not an optimal global optimization solution known for real-world problems, correlations among certain values of hyperparameters are useful to guide the selection of such a solution.

Keywords: Bayesian optimization; echo state networks; short-term load forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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