Validating and Forecasting Carbon Emissions in the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Case of Vietnam

Anh-Tu Nguyen, Shih-Hao Lu and Phuc Thanh Thien Nguyen
Additional contact information
Anh-Tu Nguyen: Department of Business Administration, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taipei 106, Taiwan
Shih-Hao Lu: Department of Business Administration, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taipei 106, Taiwan
Phuc Thanh Thien Nguyen: Department of Computer Science, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taipei 106, Taiwan

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-38

Abstract: This paper examines the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in Vietnam between 1977 and 2019. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, we find an inverted N-shaped relation between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in both the long- and short-run. The econometric results also reveal that energy consumption and urbanization statistically positively impact pollution. The long-run Granger causality test shows a unidirectional causality from energy consumption and economic growth to pollution while there is no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. These suggest some crucial policies for curtailing emissions without harming economic development. In the second step, we also employed the back-propagation neural networks (BPN) to compare the work of econometrics in carbon dioxide emissions forecasting. A 5-4-1 multi-layer perceptron with BPN and learning rate was set at 0.1, which outperforms the ARDL’s outputs. Our findings suggest the potential application of machine learning to notably improve the econometric method’s forecasting results in the literature.

Keywords: backpropagation neural network; energy consumption; environmental Kuznets curve; pollution; urbanization; Vietnam (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/11/3144/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/11/3144/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:11:p:3144-:d:563874

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().