Global-Local Heat Demand Development for the Energy Transition Time Frame Up to 2050

Dominik Keiner, Larissa D.S.N.S. Barbosa, Dmitrii Bogdanov, Arman Aghahosseini, Ashish Gulagi, Solomon Oyewo, Michael Child, Siavash Khalili and Christian Breyer
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Dominik Keiner: School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
Larissa D.S.N.S. Barbosa: Luiz De Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba 13418-900, Brazil
Dmitrii Bogdanov: School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
Arman Aghahosseini: School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
Ashish Gulagi: School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
Solomon Oyewo: School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
Michael Child: School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
Siavash Khalili: School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
Christian Breyer: School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 13, 1-51

Abstract: Globally, the heat sector has a major share in energy consumption and carbon emission footprint. To provide reliable mitigation options for space heating, domestic hot water, industrial process heat and biomass for cooking for the energy transition time frame up to the year 2050, energy system modeling relies on a comprehensive and detailed heat demand database in high spatial resolution, which is not available. This study overcomes this hurdle and provides a global heat demand database for the mentioned heat demand types and in a resolution of 145 mesoscale regions up to the year 2050 based on the current heat demand and detailed elaboration of parameters influencing the future heat demand. Additionally, heat demand profiles for 145 mesoscale regions are provided. This research finds the total global heat demand will increase from about 45,400 TWh th in 2012 up to about 56,600 TWh th in 2050. The efficiency measures in buildings lead to a peak of space heating demand in around 2035, strong growth in standards of living leads to a steady rise of domestic hot water consumption, and a positive trend for the worldwide economic development induces a growing demand for industrial process heat, counterbalanced by the efficiency gain in already industrialised countries. For the case of biomass for cooking, a phase-out path until 2050 is presented. Literature research revealed a lack of consensus on future heat demand. This research intends to facilitate a more differentiated discussion on heat demand projections.

Keywords: heat; energy demand; industrial process heat; space heating; domestic hot water; energy system modeling; biomass; profiles; energy transition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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