Linkages between Energy Delivery and Economic Growth from the Point of View of Sustainable Development and Seaports
Elżbieta Szaruga,
Zuzanna Kłos-Adamkiewicz,
Agnieszka Gozdek and
Elżbieta Załoga
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Elżbieta Szaruga: Department of Transport Management, Institute of Management, University of Szczecin, 71-004 Szczecin, Poland
Zuzanna Kłos-Adamkiewicz: Department of Transport Management, Institute of Management, University of Szczecin, 71-004 Szczecin, Poland
Agnieszka Gozdek: Department of Transport Management, Institute of Management, University of Szczecin, 71-004 Szczecin, Poland
Elżbieta Załoga: Department of Transport Management, Institute of Management, University of Szczecin, 71-004 Szczecin, Poland
Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 14, 1-61
Abstract:
This paper presents the synchronisation of economic cycles of GDP and crude oil and oil products cargo volumes in major Polish seaports. On the one hand, this issue fits into the concept of sustainable development including decoupling; on the other hand, the synchronisation may be an early warning tool. Crude oil and oil products cargo volumes are a specific barometer that predicts the next economic cycle, especially as they are primary sources of energy production. The research study applies a number of TRAMO/SEATS methods, the Hodrick–Prescott filter, spectral analysis, correlation and cross-correlation function. Noteworthy is the modern approach of using synchronisation of economic cycles as a tool, which was described in the paper. According to the study results, the cyclical components of the cargo traffic and GDP were affected by the leakage of other short-term cycles. However, based on the cross-correlation, it was proved that changes in crude oil and oil products cargo volumes preceded changes in GDP by 1–3 quarters, which may be valuable information for decision-makers and economic development planners.
Keywords: cargo volumes; crude oil and oil products; economic cycles; economic management; decoupling; liquid bulk cargoes; maritime ports; seaports; sustainable development concept; synchronisation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:14:p:4255-:d:594370
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